Expectations for a Trump Second Term (Cabinet and Economics)

           After a long and controversial campaign trail for the 2024 election, former President Trump is now certified as the 47^th president. We are now ten days away from inauguration day, and there are growing concerns about what the next four years may mean for the future of the United States of America. Some of America’s largest domestic issues will be pushed to the forefront of his agenda, and changes are expected to come quickly. Furthermore, Trump’s executive power dwarfs his previous term, with it officially being announced that the Republicans have won the majority in both the House and Senate alongside a conservative majority sitting on the bench of the Supreme Court.

            A major sign of how Trump’s presidency will go is looking into his cabinet picks. According to U.S.NEWS, he is seeking a radical restructuring of the executive government by making his picks based on loyalty over experience due to their public support and aid to win the 2024 election. During Trump’s first term in office, his cabinet had a high turnover rate as he picked men and women with a firm, respected political establishment, such as previous Secretary of Defense James Mattis. However, issues arose as his unconventional governing style conflicted with his appointees’ adherence to institutional norms. This was topped with the accusation that his frustration also stemmed from his agenda and policies being blocked by bureaucracy. For his second term, Trump has made cabinet picks such as Chris Wright (Secretary of Energy), Pete Hegseth (Secretary of Defense), and RFK Jr. (Administrator of Environmental Protection Agency), all of whom have had little to no experience in government or the department they were assigned to. Despite their leadership and lack of experience being called into question, it is without a doubt that this executive government will be much more decisive and unified, especially with the dismantling of the over-populated bureaucracy and expenditure through the new Department of Government Efficiency led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy.

            Between COVID and the mishandling of government spending over the last four years, the economy is one of the largest subjects Americans deeply care about. With his American First agenda at the forefront of the campaign, President-elect Trump wants to create an autarkic economy by using our resources and bringing back jobs in the states. According to ABC News and Trump’s campaigning, tariffs are the biggest component of his economic plan. He plans that all imported items could face tariffs of up to 10%, with China facing even harsher ones. These tariffs will hinder foreign industries while making our domestic ones competitive, creating jobs, and boosting manufacturing in the U.S. The largest concern is that it takes time and money for industries to grow, so an upfront cost will primarily target the lower and middle classes as consumer spending rises. This will bring slow economic growth, and the costs will decrease as time goes on. However, the immediate effects may not be favorable as the people who elected him are the ones who entrust him to fix our broken economy.

            One of his more ambiguous policies was raised in the presidential debates, mentioning tax cuts for individuals and companies. Trump has not specifically stated how he plans to do this, but that the tariffs would ideally cover this policy financially. However, a nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office report suggested that the tax cuts could add $3.5 trillion to the nation’s deficit to the already absurd $2 trillion deficit. At that rate, with the current $36 trillion national debt, the debt could reach upwards of $58 trillion by 2028.

            As expected, President-elect Trump has vowed to slash energy and electricity costs by ramping up domestic production of fossil fuels and providing tax cuts to related producers. According to ABC News, Trump plans to do away with the Inflation Reduction Act, the most extensive climate measure in U.S. history, offering incentives for clean energy projects and purchasing electric vehicles. This causes concern for environmentalists as oil production grew considerably under the Biden administration, and this proposed expansion of fossil fuels only fuels the flame.

            In short, it is to be expected that Trump’s executive government will be inexperienced but unified, destroying inefficient government spending and an over-crowded bureaucracy. Although supposedly the United States should see economic growth, the combination of tariffs and tax cuts will cause a rise in consumer goods costs and additions to the deficit to the already growing national debt. The domestic production of fossil fuels will once again drive the economy; however, Trump’s anti-climate policies cause concern for environmentalists as climate change continues to be a prominent issue in the twenty-first century.